Semi Canary Still Chirping, But He’s Gonna Croak in 2018

Since January 2013 we have been using the worldwide Semiconductor Equipment industry as a leader within the Semiconductor sector, which is an economic cyclical leader itself. That month we noted a positive move in Equipment bookings, which became a (3 month) trend that spring. This trend was used to project positive economic signals to come. Through some turbulence in 2014 and 2015 the sector has … Continue reading Semi Canary Still Chirping, But He’s Gonna Croak in 2018

producer prices

This is What the ‘Inflation Trade’ Looks Like

Our theme is that Trump and the Republicans took over with fiscally driven inflation policy from Obama and the Fed’s monetarily driven inflation policy. Within this, the Fed makes its “sloth-like” withdrawal from QE’s bloated balance sheet business as fiscal policy sinks into the economy. The not so good? Producer prices for 2017 were up 2.6% for the year, but lagged in December The good? … Continue reading This is What the ‘Inflation Trade’ Looks Like