I have been wrong on many things and I’ll be wrong on more. It’s part of being human, and the financial markets love to rub our noses in our pathetic humanity.
Anyway, this post is an excuse to reprise the 30 month cycle and “by Q4” timing for a market top. Subsequent analysis has long since backed me off of this theme (as the 3 Amigos journey has extended) but we have got to own our screw ups because people read this stuff and some people think other people writing on the internet are experts. There is no such thing as an expert on the financial markets.
Here is the SPX ‘C30’ having utterly failed to even begin flat lining in Q4 and so, I was wrong. Sure, the daily view shows a decline since the high in mid-December. Maybe that was a top, but there is not technical indication of that as SPX has simply declined gently to fill a gap. So this chart was useless to you and me. C30 had produced a change of note in 5 out of 7 instances. It’s now 5 of 8.
This post is also an excuse to post a song I like by the Sisters of Mercy.
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