Commercial hedgers are hitting new extremes in their net short positions even as WTI Crude targets higher levels off of what a TA who wants to sound serious would tell you is a “complex Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern” but that a TA like me would tell you is a bullish mutant freak. The next technical target is 62(ish) and then ultimately there is another up in the mid 70s.
But what’s this? A record net short by Commercials since 2008.
And what’s this? A record net short by commercials since as far back as I could dial the chart (both courtesy of Sentimentrader).
So it’s the mutant bottoming pattern vs. very real and un-bullish CoT data. I have no oil or Energy positions currently. We’ve noted in NFTRH that 75 could be a major shorting opportunity for oil and who knows, if things boil over in the Middle East maybe an epic short would set up. But right now, Commercials are really loaded up and it seems beyond just normal ‘good practice’ hedging.
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