alice

NFTRH; July/August Seasonal (30yr Avg) Weak Spot Begins

A reminder that on the average of the last 30 years the late July → early August seasonal has been bear biased. Here is the note (and graphs) from NFTRH 455…

“Finally, I have marked up a rough patch in the 30yr average S&P 500 seasonal from mid-July into August. The market is bouncing now, but by this guide the would-be rough patch is a week or so away. Take it with a grain of salt, but there it is anyway.”

july

august

Looking out ahead, September is also a rough month, relatively speaking on average.

sept

Given the seasonal averages, the generalized over bullishness in stocks, our developing view on the Fed Funds rate and the stock market and our amateur cycle work, and the republicans puking all over themselves on Healthcare (that can’t be beneficial to confidence, which in my opinion is what this market is and has been mainly about) I am going to, for my own personal management, call discretion the better part of valor and bump cash levels up and do some more balancing.

Yesterday I took partial profit on MZOR and today a full profit on SINA. I am also considering taking profit on FARO and profits/limited losses elsewhere. I have not yet looked closely enough to make final decisions other than I am going to raise cash and re-balance a bit. In that regard I added the Utilities (XLU) and may add to short positions, which currently only include QQQ and tentatively, the Euro.