alice

NFTRH; Gold, GDX, Dollar and Stock Market

A snapshot with limited comments…

Gold (GLD) is right at the SMA 200 and thus, the decision point about whether this rally will continue.  A higher high would make this a legitimate intermediate rally even if it subsequently pulls back to make a higher low (which is likely, in my opinion).  Note: silver is a lesser version of gold, well below its SMA 200 (though the Silver-Gold ratio is bouncing today, which is a potential benefactor for the stock market and risk ‘on’).

gld

GDX is struggling at the SMA 50 (along w/ GDM, while XAU & GDXJ are well below their SMA 50s and HUI is tentatively above its SMA 50).  I don’t like the negative divergence by the miners to the metal and I don’t like that the stock market is down on Healthcare / ‘Trump Trade Fade’ hype.  That is, I don’t like them if I am a precious metals bull and a stock market bear (neither of which I am at this point).  Much like gold above, the February high is the bullish trend setter for the miners.  It’s a long way off.

gdx

US dollar (UUP) is working its way down to the SMA 200, which would be a support point.  On a chart of USD, there is also an intermediate uptrend line just below that level.  While we might expect USD to eventually work its way down to the mid-90’s based on its daily pattern, an interim bounce (corresponding with an interim pullback in gold?) would seem likely.

uup

SPX has now fulfilled a decent pullback by hitting the SMA 50.  Again, were it not for the media headlines about Healthcare I’d be more constructive on additional downside.  But let’s remember that market reactions in response to inflammatory events rarely stick.  The best looking downside target was 2260 to 2280 for a ‘healthy’ pullback and that may still be ahead (the other pullback parameters are to the SMA 50 [blue] for a very mild one and the SMA 200 [red] for a really healthy one).  But it has now been a month of pulling back since the ‘Peak Trump’ candle was put in, hitting 2400.  Risk/reward is becoming more positive on the stock market.

spx

I will not get too talky here.  Let’s watch our assumptions and stay balanced.  If you have any questions just pop them to the @nftrh email.