Using tools like the Public Optimism Index (OPTIX), the Commercial Hedgers’ net short/long data (by way of Sentimentrader) and plain old common sense, we have nailed a low of some sort in Treasury bonds (high in yields) after the MSM led everyone in the wrong direction at the wrong time, as usual. How’s that Louise Yamada trend line looking now? It’s still there and it is still broken but as noted it was far too simple a view of the market as presented by the MSM. Far too damn simple.
The 10yr yield has held below our monthly EMA 110 like a charm.
As most recently shown in NFTRH 428, the public was all out…
…and the ‘smart money’ all in, at the last reading.
I had bulked up on this trade and I think it is time to sell about half of the positions in Treasury bonds. I’ll sell from the taxable account since future dividend income would be taxed there. I’ll plan to hold TLT and IEF in the Roth IRA indefinitely. That is the beauty of a play like this if you can catch it right; even as you’re accumulating – and inevitably taking paper losses – you get the income to go with the would-be NAV price appreciation if it works as the sentiment backdrop said it should.
Here’s TLT doinking the 50 day moving averages. I think it can ultimately get to the gap around 130, all the while distributing monthly income. But I take part of my well-earned profit as a reward for not being a MSM following herd member. Also, with the precious metals pumping up with T bonds, I have positions in those and other items that got clobbered (along w/ T bonds) on Trump. Got to stay balanced.
I’d still maintain it is very possible the bond bull ended last summer amid the NIRP hysteria, but this bounce was always in the cards. The funny thing is, if the bond bull does end, the MSM will trot Yamada and her dopey trend line out one day with some sort of ‘The woman who called the end of the bond bull now sees [fill in the blank for more useless MSM drivel]… ‘ headline.
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