au.ag

A Lunatic Speaks

In the case of the title, the lunatic is… me.  IMO you’ve got to have some lunatic in you to even be involved in gold while the system works 24/7 to discredit the need for monetary insurance.  It’s a bit of commentary excerpted from a report that was mostly nuts & bolts analysis (of much more than the gold market, which is flat out bearish, pending over sold bounce potential), NFTRH 424; just because sometimes it bears repeating…

A subscriber asked why I tend to highlight the HUI so often and gold and silver “almost never”. My answer was that in an update on Tuesday I gave very definite levels to watch in gold and silver and we also chart gold and silver in the overwhelming majority of weekend reports. But I do see the spirit of his question.

Pertaining to the last line on page 2 [previous segment, on the bond market], perhaps I need to put on my gold plated tin foil hat and let out some personal dogma for newer subscribers. I have held gold for 14 years now and really almost forget that I hold it (including through the recent bear market). I nervously bought it at 390, watch it drop 20%, bought it again and then bought some more when it made new highs in the low 400’s. That’s it, my history with old yeller and I have done nothing with it since then except trim off a very minor portion over the years (I have traded physical silver much more aggressively).

So sure, I do not obsess on gold and my personal dogma is that all too many people do obsess on it and want you to join in their obsession, enthralling you with their ability to call a market that in my opinion, should not be played, like another game in the casino.

NFTRH is not the entity that is going to micro manage the short-term wiggles in the gold price for subscribers and if you want something more dynamic with respect to an asset that my dogma believes is there to provide very long-term value and insurance, then you might want to consider other services. They are out there aplenty and sometimes they even get some calls right.

I was taught many years ago, by the semi lunatic who I sometimes think of when I look at Alice, the Queen and the Rabbit tattooed on my arm, that “gold is about value, not price”. I took the lesson to heart and have stayed with it. No amount of casino mentality is going to change that either. At some point, something has got to be real.

I understand that we are dealing each week in a realm filled with people drawing Elliott Wave projections (and alternatives), trend lines, Fibonacci retracements, momentum oscillators, algorithms, quant machines, central bank bond manipulators, day traders, substance abusers, blinking red and green lights, and… mom & pop; and I feel we manage all of that quite well; better than most.

But again, something has got to be real, and if I believe gold is real then I also believe I do not need to worry about it because it does its very real job of reflecting the times. In times of expanding confidence (and asset appreciation) it underperforms or goes bearish. In times of waning confidence it does the opposite. That is what monetary insurance is.

Why do I talk more about the gold miners, royalty and exploration companies? Why, that should be obvious; they are leveraged speculations that can make you rich or bust you out. It takes very active management. On that front I feel we have done well also.

Off the soapbox, let’s get to it…

Which is what #424 then proceeded to do, as it took a hard technical, sentiment and fundamental look at all major markets.

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