Very few words are needed here. When gold began to cycle upward and change trend vs. positively correlated items, a bull phase was indicated. Now gold is broken vs. most of those items (along with bonds and some currencies).
One scenario that I think is viable is related to the Presidential cycle data we reviewed prior to the election. Typically, the final 2 months of the year should be bullish for the stock market. Then troubles begin the following year (when a democrat hands off to a republican). The precious metals could be leading events to come in broader markets in 2017. Let’s remember who was the upside leader in 2016; it was gold and the miners.
So this is bearish for precious metals in the near-term (again, reference the ‘bottom retest’ scenario in last night’s update) but on the other side, I am taking the bullish stock market in small chunks. In other words, we are plotting to year-end but not beyond, pending coming information. For now, the positively correlated stuff is more bullish and counter-cyclical gold is bearish.
