gomer pyle

Disclaimer on Inflation

pyleI see some writers out there declaring victory for the inflationary view, the dollar bear market view and the strong economic view.  I declare no such thing.

While one of my own analytical influences, Bob Hoye, has been ‘anti’ my view for virtually all of 2016, I continue to respect the idea and potential… not of deflation, but of liquidation; of an unwinding of this excessive construct or at least an errr… adjustment.  Indeed, in the last couple of NFTRH editions it has been noted that my cash levels are “too low!!”

Everybody is bullish the gold sector.  Everybody is bullish on stocks.  Commodities have turned up again.

Remember that Gomer’s “SURPRISE!” can cut both ways, especially when sentiment is too far on one side of the boat.  What I am saying is that risk management is always in style and even if the expected inflation takes hold, there will be violence along the way.

Why, just look at the Fed jawbones in the media this week… on cue.  They are muck raking and the market will decide how seriously to take them.