The Fundamentals are Thing 1 and the technicals are Thing 2.
Some aspects of Thing 1 became positive as early as 2014, when gold began out performing virtually all commodities. Over the last 6 months most other fundamentals became positive, notably excepting Treasury yield spreads, which are gold-favorable when rising. They are not rising. Now most other fundamentals are under pressure.
As for Thing 2, the weekly charts of gold and silver handily sum up what will be considered a healthy correction and what would be a deal breaker. In combination with that the fundamental backdrop needs to at least not break down (ref. the hard decline in gold vs. crude oil and gold vs. stock markets). One thing is for sure, you cannot go with technical analysis alone in the gold sector. It is mostly about the macro backdrop. Regardless, on to Thing 2…
Gold broke above the weekly EMA 75 to signal the breaking of the bear’s ball and chain and a potential new bull market. That is now a key technical test area.
Silver did the same, only with the EMA 55. We have been noting the hard resistance (long-term) that silver was likely to have trouble at. Now for the test.
The miners are even more dynamic and we’ll manage those in the weekly report and in updates. I had my last (and only) public table pounding moment in Q4 2008 when miners came crashing down and fundamentals went screaming up. This Thing is not like that Thing.
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