Brief Market Update

From the last detailed market update…

“As parroted all along the journey, I need either a complete and devastating wash out (current low target is HUI 75, who knows what happens when gold bugs spit the bit?) that comes with compelling fundamentals (ref. Q4 2008), technical readings I can make sense of and illustrate to you as implying more than just the likes of the recent ‘bounce’ or significant upside work that takes out key resistance levels.

Short of those things, I’ll take a try here and there, realize this is the sector that is probably going to set up to be a massive risk vs. reward play one day, and be patient.  If gold holds support 1120, the sector could just as easily put in a double bottom here as tank if gold loses support.  I am not in a gambling mood just yet (and this is where having actual metal is a psychological support to patience).”

Gold held 1120 yesterday and the double bottom scenario is still valid.  Everything else applies.  This is in the ‘bounce’ category, which does not mean it will not turn into something more.  Just that there is no technical confirmation of anything other than a bounce.

With the positive fundamentals taking shape, we can be open to that as long as the sector does not lose support.

As for commodities, there is a bounce there as well, with crude oil getting bounced hard.  The US dollar has firmed but has not broken above parameters that would put it back on the bull.

The stock market hit target #1 (equiv. of SPX 1975) and is taking a rest.  We have 2050 up higher, but 1975 was a 50% Fib retrace and valid to halt the bounce.

We’ll update everything on Sunday after the dust settles.