Gold has been hammered to a hair below 1200, with 1150 but a drop in the bucket now for battle tested gold bugs.  More interestingly, silver is green and more interestingly than that the miners are even more green. In a stultifyingly brutal and dull market (it has been dull in its one way monotony) this divergence is notable.  Gold blown up out of nowhere … Continue reading NFTRH Update 6.27.13, Precious Metals Divergence

It looks like the opposing action of gold and silver to the stock market will come into play soon.  With the metals free falling (conveniently right to what look like strong support levels), the setup is in place for a coming end to this precious metals melt down (and possibly the bear market) as the stock market resumes its summer correction. That is the favored … Continue reading NFTRH Update 6.27.13, ‘T2C’, Broad Market & Precious Metals Status & Review

Precious Metals – Swoosh This morning’s update was going to be a normal, pre-market notes type of thing.  Then I saw gold and silver down more than $50 and $1 respectively and that became the priority. From a public post yesterday:  “More and more it looks like the end of the bear phase is going to be a swoosh.” I have tried to make the … Continue reading NFTRH Update 6.26.13; One “Swoosh” Coming Up & Market Notes

First the disclaimer:  I have tried my best to keep subscribers abreast of the risks for the last half a year or so.  HUI is now 240 points lower than when risk mode was entered.  I am making no recommendations with this post because even if the gold sector bottoms, it is unlikely that steadfast risk managers would sit and watch the index make up … Continue reading NFTRH Update 6.24.13, Opening Notes

The preferred scenario is for the market to bounce to the equivalent of the 50 day moving averages on the SPX (currently 1614 & 1618), per this morning’s pre-market update.  The gold miners are rising and falling with the broad market today, and thus they are only viewed as a bounce candidate along with the market. The 60 minute chart shows the critical level HUI … Continue reading NFTRH Update 6.21.13, Market Notes

Bonds T bonds broke down hard as ‘taper’ hysteria hits home.  We might again question whether this is due to the Fed’s supposed decision to one day taper or a compulsion from the market; like maybe China and/or Japan are systematically selling (or plan to sell) T bonds to deal with their own internal issues and US policy makers are fully aware of this. Regardless, … Continue reading NFTRH Update 6.21.13, Market Status (Bonds, Stocks & Precious Metals) Incl. Technicals

Gold:  -$57 at 1294.  Silver:  -$1.49 at 19.86 Both metals are at or near their next support levels, which are gold 1250 +/- and silver at the significant 17-20 range, which we have noted as major support. Europe and Asia are down hard this morning after the US market reacted poorly during Bernanke’s press conference.  Maybe the market does not like that warble in his … Continue reading NFTRH Update 6.20.13, Market Notes

A subscriber asked about whether I covered my bear positions based on today’s open and the trend line breaks as I noted I would.  The answer is yes, win some lose some.  I also believe today is what we technically call ‘b/s’, but a rule is a rule.  Live to fight another day.  In fact, it’s the first rule of trading or it should be … Continue reading NFTRH Update 6.17.13, Market Notes

The recent activity – mind numbing as it seems to be – is actually constructive for the HUI with respect to a potential counter trend rally at least, and bear market end at best.  This grind is fraying everyone’s nerves while morphing into a potential bottoming pattern. The grind has also served to bring the 50 day moving averages down to the neckline of this … Continue reading NFTRH Update 6.14.13, HUI Daily Chart & Market Update

For me a picture is always worth a lot of words and this one of HUI tells the story of a little would-be bottoming pattern still in effect at what I suppose could be called minor visual support; but let’s recall that 260 also corresponds with a 62% Fib retrace of the entire bull market.  So it is notable. The rest is self-explanatory.  If this … Continue reading NFTRH Update 6.12.13: HUI Weekly Chart, Market Update

Aside from silver’s loss of support, gold is breaking down from what appears to have been a bear flag pattern defined as the lame rise from mid-May. One would not think a lukewarm jobs report could do such damage.  But one might think that the sentiment bump we noted (ref. Sentimentrader graphic from NFTRH 241) on the gold bug sector could.  And it apparently has.  … Continue reading NFTRH Update 6.7.13, Gold Bear Flag, HUI Status & HUI-Gold Ratio

In NFTRH 241 we noted that silver was at an important support level.  The equivalent of this support is being broken today on the SLV ETF: Despite the bullish precious metals CoT data, and despite heretofore over bearish sentiment data (which had gotten a bit frisky recently as we also noted in #241) the cold hard fact is that silver is losing a support level.  … Continue reading NFTRH Update 6.7.13, Silver Losing Support (& additional notes)