NFTRH Update 6.21.13, Market Notes

The preferred scenario is for the market to bounce to the equivalent of the 50 day moving averages on the SPX (currently 1614 & 1618), per this morning’s pre-market update.  The gold miners are rising and falling with the broad market today, and thus they are only viewed as a bounce candidate along with the market.

hui
HUI 60 min.

The 60 minute chart shows the critical level HUI would have to exceed to even begin a discussion about an end to the bear.  I have added NUGT today based on the 60 min. MACD and a would-be market bounce, including gold stocks.

Assuming that this trade even lasts into the weekend, it is only a trade and is only noted here so it does not just magically appear in the speculative portfolio on Sunday with no explanation.  Currently I am long Yen (again) and NUGT and awaiting new market bear opportunities with a ton of cash.

Looking around, I see that PVG has come to the level it was sold at yesterday and this is a stock that I don’t want to fool around with.  I am trying to hold off from buying it and may pay up next week if need be with NUGT as a leveraged way to ‘keep up’ (and then some) in the event PVG or others I am interested in try to get away with a sector bounce.  More likely, I’d expect an eventual failure and new lows at least down to the 215 target.

Again, this is based on the miners now going hand in hand with the broad market, on which I am bearish.  This dynamic could of course change.  But for now, it looks like this bounce could simply be Friday afternoon short covering in the broad market as well as the precious metals.

Bottom Line

I am taking a try at the miners for a quick trade.  Also, I am awaiting a re-short point on the SPX at the 50 day averages.  I am not at all sure the miners have bottomed and if I had to guess, I’d say they have not.  Consider all of the above as one lowly participant’s up to the minute view.

Again I remind readers to please not trade with me.  I am just not that good a trader!  :-(  I am just letting you know what I am doing at the moment and how I see this market.

And have a GREAT weekend.  See you Sunday with NFTRH 244, which should be fun to write.