Technical Analysis – Put Egos Aside & Respect the Charts

Case-based ‘White Paper’ on the importance of unbiased TA: I would like to repeat the idea that it is best to subordinate yourself to markets at all times.  To put your ego aside or at least check it daily to make sure it is not leading you astray.  The gold bug ego for example, hardened by a solid decade-plus of relentless bull market is in … Continue reading Technical Analysis – Put Egos Aside & Respect the Charts

NFTRH Interim Update 3.26.13, HUI Technical Status

A quick reminder that if you are a committed gold stock investor who does not care about the short-term, and find these updates dealing in short-term affairs disturbing, please disregard. With more strong data coming out of the US, the bull surge continues.  Cyprus was so yesterday.  Gold stocks are now firmly in the counter cyclical group (along with the Yen, T bonds and I … Continue reading NFTRH Interim Update 3.26.13, HUI Technical Status

Gold Ratios – An Update

Current gold ratio setups, a real world view of ratio analysis ‘White Paper’ As the Cyprus drama and other macro events play out and distort normal macro economic signals to varying degrees in the short-term, let’s review the ‘real price’ of counter-cyclical gold vs. the cyclical industrial metals: Au-GYX bottomed hard in February, MACD sported a positive divergence and now the ratio has turned up … Continue reading Gold Ratios – An Update

NFTRH Interim Update 3.21.13, Market Review

Since the ZSL position was mentioned in an update, I feel I should use an update to well, update its parameters. This position was taken against gold stocks as more or less a hedge.  But the technicals looked good for a trade in its own right.  Today that trade is not looking good, but is still intact.  The chart above shows a support line that, … Continue reading NFTRH Interim Update 3.21.13, Market Review

NFTRH Interim Update 3.15.13 Silver Technical Status & Notes

Today I am adding the 2x silver bear fund ZSL back again.  The reason it is mentioned in an update is not as a recommendation for anyone, but as a potential tool for people who are heavily invested in the precious metals to hedge with, if that is something they have decided they want to do. I looked at the chart and liked what I … Continue reading NFTRH Interim Update 3.15.13 Silver Technical Status & Notes

NFTRH Interim Update 3.14.13, Market Update

Precious Metals (Negative) Bearish Engulfing candles aplenty yesterday (‘BE’ is only a very short-term bearish candle, with implications over the next 1-3 days at most) Lack of bullish follow-through from Tuesday Metals and stocks in downtrends and no sign of bottom confirmation * Precious Metals (Positive… well okay, less negative) MACD and RSI still look generally constructive on many charts Volume was not compelling yesterday … Continue reading NFTRH Interim Update 3.14.13, Market Update

NFTRH Interim Update 3.13.13, HUI Daily & 60 Min. Views

Today is a normal looking reaction thus far.  The opening weakness was however, enough to get me taking some well earned profits.  These two charts attempt to show normal and when normal becomes abnormal. The MACD is triggered up and the RSI looks good, bumping up from over sold.  The favored scenario is that HUI got over sold enough to make a try for one … Continue reading NFTRH Interim Update 3.13.13, HUI Daily & 60 Min. Views

NFTRH Interim Update 3.11.13, Addendum to NFTRH 229

Broad Market Comment Regarding the segment in NFTRH 229 that included the chart showing the divergences between the CCI commodity index and the S&P 500, a subscriber felt I may have misspoken.  I could probably have explained it a little more clearly, but the analysis is as intended. The point was that “stocks had it right” in 2008 with respect to the coming crash across … Continue reading NFTRH Interim Update 3.11.13, Addendum to NFTRH 229

Don’t Expect the US Stock Market Mini-Bubble to Roll Over Just Yet

We have been reviewing different versions of this chart in NFTRH over the last several weeks as the S&P 500 approaches a long-standing target of 1550+.  Today it looks like that target will be hit and exceeded with ease, but last summer and right through the Fiscal Cliff nonsense in December, very few were willing to entertain such crazy talk. Targets are guides and objectives, … Continue reading Don’t Expect the US Stock Market Mini-Bubble to Roll Over Just Yet

NFTRH Interim Update 3.7.13, HUI Key Technical Points and Gold Stock Discussion

The reversal from down to up yesterday morning – happening just as yesterday’s NFTRH update was being written – followed through for the rest of the day and it did so on volume, generally speaking.  It looks like we have a bottom of some kind.  We’ll stop well short of calling it the bottom, because the 62% major bull market Fib at 260 is still … Continue reading NFTRH Interim Update 3.7.13, HUI Key Technical Points and Gold Stock Discussion

NFTRH Interim Update 3.5.13, Silver Gold Ratio and its Implications

If silver out performs gold, the entire precious metals sector stands a chance to rise with the silver-gold ratio.  This is not a comment on an important bottom being in place, because I’d rather see HUI make the low 300’s and this ratio come to the lower support line, which coincides with the downtrend channel bottom. But a rise in the ratio to the top … Continue reading NFTRH Interim Update 3.5.13, Silver Gold Ratio and its Implications

NFTRH Interim Update 3.5.13, Market Review and Strategy

Broad Market With Europe up this morning and the US market closing yet again right at resistance yesterday (Dow at the top of its Reverse Symmetrical Triangle and SPX/NDX at lateral resistance) it looks like today could be the day that decides whether or not recent corrective activity “was it”, in answer to the question that NFTRH 228 asked in its opening segment. Additional upside … Continue reading NFTRH Interim Update 3.5.13, Market Review and Strategy