NFTRH Interim Update 3.21.13, Market Review

Since the ZSL position was mentioned in an update, I feel I should use an update to well, update its parameters.

ZSL daily chart

This position was taken against gold stocks as more or less a hedge.  But the technicals looked good for a trade in its own right.  Today that trade is not looking good, but is still intact.  The chart above shows a support line that, if violated, would represent my personal ‘stop loss’ tolerance.  That is because the technical objective of the trade would no longer be applicable below that support level.

Just an FYI.

As for the broad market, it is over bought, over loved and due for a rude awakening at some point.  I am not convinced that rude awakening is imminent, although I added a bear position on small caps at yesterday’s close to go with the existing put position on SPY.

Gold stocks are still generally in patterns that indicate a bottom.  People are getting antsy about the lack of volume this week, but it is the previous volume from the thrust off the bottom that is important and that was good.  If it is not a bottom, it is a bear flag, which would probably bring on new lows.  But the shape of this pattern (and the aforementioned previous volume) argue against that.

HUI 2 hour chart