Usually interim updates are all business, talking about changes in indicators or technical analysis or parameters. Well, this market is getting beyond the black and white and bears some discussion, from one market participant to another. So pretending that you casually asked me ‘hey pal, what do you think about the markets?’…
As crude oil continues down today we are presented with a perfect opportunity to review why gold mining fundamentals can IMPROVE in a rising US dollar atmosphere. So many people run the equation through their heads: USD Strong = Run Away!
A return to a previous NFTRH+ highlight for base metals enthusiasts for simple little trade.
From yesterday’s update…
[edit] Please accept my apologies. Futures are down, but not nearly as drastically as what was earlier noted. MarketWatch showed indexes down around 2.5% but Bloomberg had them at around -.5%. A check of the actual prices shows the Bloomberg data is correct. So take everything below as a future game plan in case the August lows are breached.
The following is an email from subscriber Francisco. I thought I would use it as a basis for an update on gold and the miners today (with his permission). I’ve numbered the points being addressed from his email…
We had noted that the miners could bounce at any time. That time needs to be now for GDX to avoid lower lows. GDXJ, due to its modest out performance, has more room between current price and the June low.
Mellanox is an Israel based (US Headquarters in Sunnyvale, CA) Semiconductor company that you may have seen sitting in the brokerage account. I bought it because it was making what looked like its second bull flag at around 41. It has tested my patience, but has been firming lately.
Sentiment Backdrop
Improving CoT data, public opinion in the dumps, Hulbert’s HGNSI at an extreme bearish level and the contributed articles at Kitco uniformly bearish (or at least acknowledging that gold is done for a while). Getting very bullish, but sentiment is not a very good timer.
This one is cut and dry technically. Europe has been bouncing as expected and is apparently overjoyed about some Ukraine-Russia talks. Backing out the hype what we have here is a hard down in an ETF that lost its uptrend and the 50/200 day moving averages. It is now bouncing right back to them.
Folks, being a long standing gold bull on the big picture it is a little weird for me to do this. But NFTRH+ is a service that focuses on technical trading and GLD/Gold are in a bearish setup. Hence, it is noted for those interested.
I have had the HUI 220 to 225 potential hanging out there for quite a while now. Interestingly, today with gold and silver getting hammered that HUI support zone looks far away and out of reach, unless the sector is going to totally break down.
‘+’ updates have thus far been on non-precious metals items because of the extended grind of would-be bottom patterns in play for the last year, and because other items have had more definable and actionable setups. This morning I want to look ahead at the juniors and explorers since the patterns are maturing.
Yesterday we had some supports threatened and in some cases broken. Today these are being repaired. Further, the Silver-Gold and GDXJ-GDX ratios remained at a potential bottom and a short-term uptrend respectively.