NFTRH+; Gold Juniors & Explorers

‘+’ updates have thus far been on non-precious metals items because of the extended grind of would-be bottom patterns in play for the last year, and because other items have had more definable and actionable setups.  This morning I want to look ahead at the juniors and explorers since the patterns are maturing.

If the precious metals sector goes bullish off of the weekly patterns, knowledgeable fundamental gold stock analysts (such as they are) think that quality juniors and explorers will out perform due to the need for ounces by the seniors and corresponding M&A activity.  Below we use a ‘Portrait’ chart format to accentuate the patterns, which are and have for many months been in the form of Inverted Head & Shoulders bottoming patterns.

This morning gold and silver are positive, but there is Ukraine/Russia in the air and a GDP revision and jobless claims due at 8:30 US Eastern.  We’ll see how it looks at the open.  I will stress again that the Ukraine stuff should be tuned out.  It is not a macro fundamental consideration for gold.  It is a momentum play for casino patrons.  GDP is a real fundamental consideration, and a downward revision would be gold positive.

Tuning it all out in favor of the weekly charts…

GDXJ is on the decline that should theoretically end the bottoming process after it completes.  The correction is taking the form of an orderly wedge-like march downward ABOVE the broken neckline.  So the pattern is technically activated.  Lateral support at around 37.50 intersects the neckline and that would be a low risk buy, assuming the macro fundamentals are in line or improving at the time.

If on the other hand GDXJ breaks the top blue wedge line (and holds it for a couple days), it could be on its way to a new bull leg.  MACD and RSI are good above 0 and above 50 respectively.

gdxj

Buy Target (conservative, lower risk):  37.50

Buy Target (with risk to 37.50):  Current levels

Buy Target (on upside break):  Above blue wedge line

Measured Target:  Approx. 58

Stop Loss:  As suits risk profile below 37

 

GLDX has been declining below its neckline with best support looking like 14.  But it is at the middle Bollinger Band line so it could bounce from here.  A break above the red dotted neckline is needed to get the bullish stuff going.

gldx

Buy Target (conservative, lower risk):  14

Buy Target (with risk to 14):  Current levels

Buy Target (on upside break):  Above red neckline

Measured Target:  24

Stop Loss:  Below 14 as suits risk tolerance

 

As for individual items, Explorer/Developer Rubicon Minerals (RBY), like many in the sector, is in an Inverted H&S bottoming stance.  Weekly MACD is above 0 and RSI is above 50, though pulling back toward its EMA 50, which it tends to break through before turning up again.

rby

Buy Target (conservative, lower risk):  1.10 to 1.15

Buy Target (with risk to 1.10):  Current levels

Buy Target (on upside break):  Above red neckline

Measured Target:  2.70

Stop Loss:  Below 1.10

 

I remind you that NFTRH+ updates are just trade setup ideas, which may not be revisited as the parameters are already noted.  They are meant as a starting point for further research if interested.