From time to time during the bull rally in precious metals we will chart the reactionary pullbacks and/or corrections for logical points to initiate, add to or buy back positions. Today we take a look at a few smaller companies that I think are quality situations.
Today there is some turbulence. Good, an extended rally scenario would not want to see the sector fly up to excessively over bought levels all in one big gulp. HUI…
The following is the opening segment of this week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 276:
Somewhere along the road from the 2000 bottom in gold stocks to the 2008 flame out of inflationary hysteria, the gold stock sector went from counter cyclical first mover to ‘inflation trade’ also ran. Gold stocks put in a secular bear market bottom in 2000 just as the US and many global economies were topping out.
Then came the era that NFTRH has labeled ‘Inflation onDemand’ (IoD). The economy was successfully* inflated by Alan Greenspan early in the decade as easy monetary policy fomented an epic credit bubble, which took over and did the heavy lifting for a cyclical bull market and buoyant economy that terminated hard in 2007/2008.
During this time of IoD ‘inflation bulls’ and commodity bulls who had all the answers for a newly inflation-phobic public emerged and took center stage. Misperceptions were formed, cemented and driven home. Nowhere were the misperceptions more intensely and dangerously embedded than the gold stock sector, which at its core is different than most commodity sectors and indeed, most stock sectors. Introducing another one of our ‘busy’ charts to illustrate…
Okay, article over… the chart says it all. No more words necessary! :-)
The chart is a confusing jumble you say? Okay then, let’s take it point by point.
We have been working a theme lately about the mania going on in US stocks (some valuations are not overly manic but policy sure is) and also the one going on in the mirror (a fun house mirror at that) in the ugly precious metals sector.
We are in a time of utter reverence for great and powerful Oz-like people doing not so great things to the rates of interest that would be paid to savers and prudent people (Zero Interest Rate Policy or ZIRP), and doing wonderful things for leverage (substance) users, speculators and asset owners (MBS and long-term T bond buying).
Ever since the current (final wave 5?) leg in the now 4 year, 7 month old US stock bull market generated in November of 2012, NFTRH has tried to make the point that there is no new secular bull market in US stocks. Indeed, there is a maturing cyclical bull market that has another 5 (+/-) months to live if it is to match the two previous cycles. The bubble leader, Russell 2000 does after all have a measured target of 1350 (Kisses Goodbye).
Why do we call the US cyclical stock bull a bubble you ask? Because of this chart (courtesy of SlopeCharts), variations of which NFTRH subscribers have been repeatedly hit over the head with just to make sure that we know what we are dealing with.
A quick update on the status of the weekly view of HUI and its projected ‘W’ or ‘IHS’ bottom as noted in this week’s letter.
But first, to review the daily situation, HUI made its first close above the resistance at 230 (as noted in an update last week by a daily chart). The next important task is to take out the 50 day moving averages, which are currently 234.55 (EMA) and 241.50 (SMA).
I don’t believe today’s precious metals bounce is anything because we are talking about a market that is fixating on scrambling politicians and what ever scheme they will cook up to extend the nation’s ‘Wimpy’ lifestyle… “I’ll gladly pay you on Tuesday for a Hamburger today.”
In this week's letter it was mentioned that a safer buy point on the gold stocks (as represented by the HUI index) would be with a DAILY chart move above…
The world expects the FOMC to update its expectations regarding a tapering of Treasury bond asset purchases tomorrow. The world thinks that a tapering of these purchases would be bad for gold.
I think a decrease in T bond purchases would be anything from neutral to a potential positive (see post coming later today on the matter). Regardless, it is time to be looking out beyond FOMC with regard to the precious metals, a most sensitive sector to monetary policy.
So here is a check list of what we want to see in order to press the bull stance.
Case-based 'White Paper' on the importance of unbiased TA: I would like to repeat the idea that it is best to subordinate yourself to markets at all times. To put…
The reversal from down to up yesterday morning - happening just as yesterday's NFTRH update was being written - followed through for the rest of the day and it did…
The gold miners are on the expected bounce from very over sold conditions. As you can see, HUI, GDM and XAU are all dealing with resistance at the 'neckline' to…
Gold and silver downside momentum is either building into a capitulation and a bottom or the technical damage is going to be obvious. A drop below 1525 puts gold in…
