There has been a lot of talk about how gold is not a good inflation hedge. Indeed, with the recent bounce in inflation expectations, this was shown to be true…
Referencing one of our main themes for the last half a year, the case for the gold sector is supported by the case for economic deceleration. It is not supported by inflation, as in the recent bounce in inflation expectations as the US dollar declined.
The gold sector often rises with inflation expectations as silver out performs gold and so do commodities. But the gold sector’s fundamentals are fed by counter-cyclical activity and today’s payrolls report was right in line with that. In the ‘pullback’ update on Wednesday we also noted that the ‘gold ratio’ macro indicators remained positive as well…
Everybody with eyes to see prices too far above certain moving averages knew that the gold stocks were going to pullback. But as this year has shown so far, a…
With reference to the previous posts about about weak economic data, the fundamentals for gold are getting a boost in this data. Durable Goods, Machine Tools and Consumer Confidence have all decelerated. The risk of the Fed being sensitive to inflation may have been reduced here in favor of not wanting to tank the markets.
A few weekly charts of larger gold and silver miners originally shown in NFTRH 390 as part of a package of 11 different stocks, large and not so large. AEM…
On April 7 in pre-market we had an extensive update on gold, silver and especially, the miners. This update is now public for your review. If you check it out…
I am taking partial profits in the gold stock sector because those who could not hold off anymore seem to be buying in. That is capitulation. One item I'll take…
GDXJ is going to break one way or the other pretty soon. It's in a Diamond, which is a consolidation pattern, usually thought to have no bias between trend continuation…
With all due disclaimers about FOMC week and gold’s bearish CoT structure, we note the following gold miner pullbacks on daily charts. With reference to the minor support level of 19 noted in an update on GDX yesterday (HUI 160-165) and the possibility that short-term support could be found there…
NGD hit its equivalent support at around 3.40.
Not so fast folks. Per an NFTRH update this morning GDX is not yet indicated to be correcting and I sold my DUST positions (sorry, I did not make a…
Normally I want to try to avoid updates about what I am doing with personal trading, especially during emotional, hype-filled weeks like FOMC week. But with the gold sector so in the spotlight lately and with my stance (about the risk of a correction) I assume well known, I wanted to update you on a move I am making this morning.
#386 slims down to a focused 22 pages from #385's bulbous 49 pages. There is no need for more volume because all plans are intact, markets are within existing parameters…
One is the star of the year so far, grinding higher in what could be the launch phase of a new bull market as confidence wanes in the face of NIRP and other desperate global policy actions, and the realization that this disgraceful policy designed to spur speculation and asset price appreciation is all policy makers have got left in their bags of tricks. The endgame is a bag with a hole in it; a monetary black hole.
The other grinds on in what could be the last significant hope replenishing bounce before new downside is explored. Various US and global indexes are already in bear markets but casino patrons are trained to look at the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow as “the stock market” and these have not yet gone ‘bear’. If the current bear-trend bounce fails however, that confirmation would be coming promptly.
The comments above are verified by the charts of gold vs. the S&P 500 and the Euro STOXX 50. The bullish move and current consolidation are representative of all major stock markets. This is a trend change in gold vs. stocks (joining gold vs. commodities, which turned up long ago).
Today we had the 2nd down day in a row until a reversal took hold. As noted at the site I got lucky and covered the short against NUGT before this happened. It was due to the old ‘don’t be greedy’ code and lots of unpleasant experience. This after adding GDX yesterday, as noted in an earlier post. I still think it would be for the best if GDX eventually works its way down to 16.50 to 17 (HUI 140) and the rolling MACD may imply this. But there is a small support shelf here and if it holds there could yet be a new short-term high. We’ll just have to wait and see what the market thinks.