NFTRH+; With AAII & II sentiment in the dumps…

Considering the flat out epic over-bearish AAII sentiment reading and the nearly as extreme Investors Intelligence, I decided yesterday to give this chart from NFTRH 702’s Market Sentiment segment a nod by adding QQQ. Of course, it’s just a man staring at a chart and imagining a bullish pattern. But the market is so psychologically intense that I find myself not at all sure that … Continue reading NFTRH+; With AAII & II sentiment in the dumps…

NFTRH+; updating a key indicator

The previous (public) post updates the ongoing sideways situation in the Copper/Gold ratio, one of our cyclical/inflationary vs. counter-cyclical dis-inflationary indicators. Here let’s review the TSX-V (CDNX)/TSX ratio, which normally tends to run in positive correlation with commodities, but lately has not done so. Here is the big picture monthly log scale chart showing the disconnect and divergence over the last year. The theory has … Continue reading NFTRH+; updating a key indicator

NFTRH+; a big move in this key macro indicator

The trend remains down in the 10-2yr yield curve, but I’d say a 92% jump from inversion in the steepening direction is notable and demanding of our attention going forward. I took a look at this after seeing that my short-term Treasury bond fund (1-3yr), SHY was positive while long-term yields were up again with long-term bond fund TLT negative. The important takeaway is that … Continue reading NFTRH+; a big move in this key macro indicator

NFTRH+; status of gold ratios

Here is the updated picture of the macro we want to see engage for a clear bullish macro-fundamental view of the gold mining sector. Gold/SPX is constructive to have bottomed for its pullback/test. Follow-through up and away from the SMA 50 is needed. Gold/ACWX (global stocks) is closer to doing what we want to see Au/SPX do. Gold/CRB index is still going nowhere, however… It … Continue reading NFTRH+; status of gold ratios

NFTRH+; da ‘V’ and its signals

On March 21 we had an update noting that the TSX-V (CDNX) had tentatively taken out initial resistance (now support along with the SMA 50 at 856). Today’s attempt at the down-trending SMA 200 is a reasonable objective off of that resistance breakout. But until some kind of divergence vs. the senior TSX comes in I want to have some patience with my speculative ‘resources’ … Continue reading NFTRH+; da ‘V’ and its signals

NFTRH+; important test for this high profile index

As noted in the last couple of NFTRH reports, SPX would start to go bullish potentially for more than the heretofore expected bounce if it takes out and holds the two February highs. It has taken out those highs and today begins the test about whether or not it is sustainable. I am going to have patience with this process, but if the answer is … Continue reading NFTRH+; important test for this high profile index

NFTRH+; Status of gold’s test

After this morning’s drop and today’s partial in-day reversal we find gold having thus far successfully tested the SMA 50. Dog gone if I know whether this reversal meant anything positive (low volume implies it didn’t) but the idea is to keep in mind a short-term pullback that if not yet completed could lead to the next leg up in the big picture. Here is … Continue reading NFTRH+; Status of gold’s test

NFTRH+; Gold on message, commodities may be too

Many think of gold as a commodity. I think of it as an anchor to money or what money should be. Whatever it is, it is an early bird. In 2001 it ended a secular bear market and started a bull market that would later go on to include commodities and stocks. In 2008 it dropped, leading the entire macro to a crash, from which … Continue reading NFTRH+; Gold on message, commodities may be too

NFTRH+; about those inflation trades…

From #698’s summary… Here is da ‘V’ this morning… CDNX has cracked resistance and popped to the down-trending SMA 50. This is where a move toward a final, speculative inflation trade upside blow off could start. It is of course very tentative, but at least we’ll be watching it. If it reverses and fails it would remain a negative divergence. If it breaks out and … Continue reading NFTRH+; about those inflation trades…