It feels different this time, from the previous TACOs and subversions of peace talks.
We shall see. But the markets sure are reacting as if it’s real this time.
As we know, Trump was not going to wish to extend this conflict and its knock-on price effects, especially in crude oil.
Speaking of that, if this is real we have most likely seen the bottom in the Gold/Oil ratio, which is important to the gold miners, the Copper/Oil and other industrial metals ratios, which are important to those miners.
This phase of the gold miner correction is likely over. It will remain to be seen whether or not a new phase comes about down the road. I’ll take my loss on this go-round of partial hedging. Dog gone I thought about taking another profit yesterday. Woulda, shoulda, coulda…
We have already been bullish on stock markets, US and global. With USD getting smacked along with oil, we may surmise a resumption of the uptrend in global stocks vs. US stocks (ACWX/SPY ratio).
ACWX/SPY bottomed right around “America Great Again” day (inauguration) and has put in a base. It has now established an uptrend by the up-sloping 200 day moving average (orange).
As for commodities, anything but oil/energy may be good to go. Basically, anything that was impaired by the war could out-perform after the war (assuming that’s what we’ve got on the table now). I’ll continue to favor Uranium and various critical mineral producers/explorers/processors.
Just some quick thoughts on this day that I really hope is real.
