Folks, no one indicator works as a stand-alone. In trying to gauge what is in store for markets we have got to go with probabilities and to build a case…
A snapshot of current technical status…
GLD made a bearish breakdown below the equiv. of gold 1180. To even think about repairing the technicals, GLD would have to get above 115 at a minimum (gold above 1180).
No folks, I am not a day trader! :-)
But that does not preclude me from dialing in to short-term views, and a short-term view I found interesting was in GDX and GDXJ. When seeing the predictable pullback today my first thought was ‘typical… gold stocks can’t even sustain beyond a day or two’. My second thought was ‘let me look at some charts’ and so…
The bounce we were speculating about is here and now it is time to manage its upside parameters. A simple weekly chart shows 188 an ultimate decider on whether the…
The October decline came after we had been noting various sentiment indicators were over bullish and Participation indexes were negatively diverging. A hard decline followed and a bounce came as expected with pervasive end of the world bearishness gripping participants.
Now, the bounce has morphed to new highs in some cases and players have repaired their psyches as if October never happened. For this reason, the markets are vulnerable to the faded, but still viable scenario of a November decline and re-test of October’s bearishness.
Sentimentrader’s aggregated data show a situation that is close to what it was leading into October.
Understand that these are just two stocks (without highly liquid volumes) that I am interested in for my own reasons and there is a market full of others out there. So these are not recommendations but rather, examples of charts that I look for at year end.
OncoMed (OMED) is held in the IRA as a sort of lottery ticket speculation. I bought it a few weeks ago at just above 19, rode it up and am riding it back down currently. While I sold several other items on the market bounce, I decided to keep this one because little has changed since it was driven to the 40’s last year by a news release that I considered fundamentally valid (for a very speculative specialty pharma/biotech stock that is).
Not to amp up the noise, but if the sector is going to keep doing an up one day, down the next, up the next routine around the 2008 low…
A quick check up on the current market environment…
TIP-TLT says no inflation expectations buildup yet.
Commodities vs. gold is breaking back up above the moving averages. A declining CCI-Gold has/had been one of the few positive fundamental underpinnings for the gold sector. It would also be a negative for the economy if it resumes breaking down.
Precious Metals I got back near the end of the day and observed that HUI promptly gave back any in-day bounce hopes and has now closed below the 2008 low. …
Traders be aware that HUI dropped below the 2008 low and is now above it again. It is deeply over sold (weekly chart below) and prone to bounce at any…
With events in play I thought we should have a market update as opposed to the usual ETF update this morning... US Stock Market The Republicans won, to no one's…
Gold stocks very logically bounced from the equivalent of HUI 152, which is support from 2008 and the 2002-2003 period as we noted in NFTRH 315. When dealing with these…
A quick note to let you know that I will be out for the rest of the day. I wanted to communicate this because I tend to update during dynamic…
Stock Market Let's keep it simple. At the depths of the recent hysterical downside we noted that the forces pushing the market down were probably unsustainable largely due to hype…