Financial Markets

As a market manager I stay calm about it and use it to the best of my ability.  As a human I get annoyed by it and what it does…

As noted in yesterday's post, doing the work in the weekend report changed me.  Maybe just by an increment as I had been thinking I was inching closer to a…

[edit] The reason I put so much work into the report is because I want to be able to show that work on a week by week basis.  I want…

A couple days ago it was noted that stocks are high risk, but also that I was more long than short.  Yesterday we reviewed the still bearish state of the broad market.  This bounce has tested my patience (vs. the preferred scenario seeing it as just a relief bounce) but this morning it looks like we may be getting somewhere.  If pre-market holds up, here is what SPX is doing…

I am no longer net long after yesterday and still have a full short on SPY, which was increased last Friday during the obnoxious greed fest.

One thing that the market has going for it is that though sentiment is fully recovered (which was the job and definition of a relief bounce) the optimism (red line) and pessimism (green line) reacted pretty much in real time to the small down hitch yesterday.  From Sentimentrader…

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Silly, hyperbolic title aside, that is my gain for 2016 when backing out the fact that I have been generally around 90% cash and Treasury bond equivalents while being long and short stocks with the other 10%.  It does not include a long-term gold position, which I don’t count as a capital appreciation (or loss) vehicle.  I count it as long-term value, whether it’s marked up or marked down.

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The February book-to-bill data for the Semiconductor Equipment sector is out and both bookings and billings declined in February.  From Semi... "The book-to-bill ratio has remained at or above parity…