The November payrolls report is upcoming and logic would indicate a disappointment (vs. expectations of 214,000 jobs)
So, will Hazel wear a frown…
…or sport that winning – if grotesque – smile as per usual as “great again” America gets out there and consumes products and services in the holiday run up?
I will tell you one thing; I will be surprised if government hiring does any of the heavy lifting in this report. Here once again is the collected data over the last 12 months, through October. Month after dreary month, pre-election, we noted (e.g. October Payrolls) the unusual and highly conspicuous state of government hiring. In my experience, it is unprecedented that government hiring would register the second highest volume of hires in a supposedly healthy economy.
We also noted various other economically beneficial (short-term) ploys by government initiatives associated with the Biden administration to rig the economy for appearances into the election. Well, it obviously did not work to their ends. But just as obviously, we currently have the stock market on the “America great again” rally and a major contrarian bear play shaping up.
But what happens when the lame duck fiscal powers that be (for another month+) withdraw that behind the scenes stimulus before the new guy can get in and start his stimulation apparatus? The November payrolls report will be interesting, at least. The economy is already in recession, in my opinion, when you back out government, its stimulative efforts, and much of the services fluff.
Now, after all that logic, watch tomorrow be a super strong number. But I don’t think so.
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