March Payrolls continues the string of out-performance; let’s check the details
March Payrolls (click image for BLS report):
Needless to say, someone is perma-happy.
Now for the details. If it weren’t so predictable and tawdry it would be comical. Look at that government hiring number! We have been tracking a string of unusually strong government hiring numbers for months now. This is the strongest yet, as all those public workers now approach the level of embedded Education and Health services. There of course is another strong number for Hazel’s clients, as Americans’ perceived right to leisure and hospitality is not yet broken (I emphasize “yet”).
Meanwhile, unemployment is still very low, but in my opinion also slowly forming a base prior to an upturn into or in 2025. At that time perceived rights to leisure may be a quaint notion from the recent past.
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Boy oh boy, if you understand what’s going on I tip my hat to you. I fully expected with a blowout jobs report pushing rate cuts further out that stocks, and gold, would tank. Which is why I don’t trade. (Mike C)
Well Mike, I won’t claim to 100% understand it. But I will claim to have my theory (tucked up under my tin foil hat). The combination of government hiring, fiscal spending/stimulation and a tight (but not really) Fed (IMO in coordination with Treas Sec Yellen) have me thinking ‘oh yeah, it’s an election year!’. Beyond that, markets do look ahead and I think that is what gold is doing.