An update on the gold miners

As GDX bounces from another moderately oversold reading, let’s take a checkup on the situation. Technically, it is bouncing from a higher low to September. Viable to continue, but also technically viable to fail.

However, our theme has included the prospect of Q4, 2023’s positive Gold/Oil ratio contributing to potentially better than expected quarterly results. Most miners report next week. However, premier gold miner Barrick Gold has already reported and beaten expectations on both the top and bottom lines. It’s a start, at least, and it it’s a positive hint for the thesis.

On Wednesday I posted the pessimistic public perceptions of gold and silver in the Trade Log (to show why I added Au & Ag fund CEF). It’s a good bet that gold stocks are the same way (or, likely, even more hated).

Side Notes:

• Gold Miners Bullish Percent (BPGDM) has spiked back down to an oversold reading. A positive.
• However, Gold/SPX ratio is still in the dumps, a negative, longer-term fundamentally. In other words, until this changes our view for a potential bump during Q4’s reporting is not a long-term thing. It would be an interim one. But we will continue to watch Gold/SPX for any changes.
• The neutral/bear biased daily chart above is one thing. But a reminder that longer-term charts of GDX/GDM/HUI show an intact situation above the 2022 lows (172.80 for HUI, 20.82 for GDX).
• The HUI/Gold ratio made a big spike down this week to actually test the lows of the 2020 crash. That to me seems important. As in ‘potentially bottoming’ important.