Chart Study: Dynavax stock (DVAX)

Dynavax stock (DVAX) heads upward after strange down move

Dynavax stock (DVAX) is one I’ve held, traded and profited on repeatedly. It’s my own pick, the product of some research, tracking of progress, filtering the former COVID adjuvant hype, which always was going to be temporary, and focusing on execution of the rollout and commercialization of its Hep B vaccine.

Most recently I hold it from around the post-COVID lows at 10.47, adding it in late April as it dropped to test the daily SMA 50 after breaking above it. Anyway, on Friday it made a nasty pullback for seemingly no reason even as the broad markets ramped upward. That was annoying, but I held it because I am fundamentally engaged, but also because it did not violate the daily EMA 20 (green dotted line), let along the SMA 50 or SMA 200.

But if I were to take it personally, I’d resent the bald faced manipulation of some kind that the stock underwent just before it erased that pullback on Monday and shot upward into today. One thing about being a chart guy is that you tend to be driven by the charts and sometimes the chart guy will see something that he thinks is there but really is not (as said chart undoes whatever he thinks he saw).

In the case of DVAX, however, I basically said to myself “eff you, I am not selling because whatever shenanigans went on did not break even the very short-term trend. Then lookie there, up goes DVAX! It’s a lesson that sometimes patience and a little filtering can work well. Of course there have been other times when I’ve sold something because the chart did break down and then it undid the damage and deposited me at the side of the road. But more often, fleeing a breakdown has saved me heartache and bag holding.

dynavax stock (DVAX)

Bottom Line? It can be a tough racket, but you’ve got to use the tools you have, including discipline and patience to try to remain on the right side of the probabilities.

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