Here is a snapshot of what gold and silver are doing pre-US open. Also, pardon me while I experiment with a new post editor (actually, it’s not new but I’ve finally decided to join the 21st century and use the advanced (as opposed to classic) editor tools available from WordPress.
Gold has pulled back a bit to test the former resistance level (now tentative support) that it took out last week. What we can say is that as long as it is above 1920 it is on its steep uptrend from Q4. A loss of that level would see a test of the hard rising EMA 20 (purple) and any significant pullback/buying opportunity would test the rising SMA 50 or support just below it in the 1820 area. As a side note, there is the golden cross of the SMA 50 above the SMA 200, which the gold “community” is touting in some corners.
Silver’s “rolling” posture has morphed sideways and eliminated the overbought reading. That’s positive. The negative aspect is that downside volume has dwarfed upside volume on this consolidation, which implies distribution. Sticking with the straight technicals, the rising SMA 50 is key initial support. It’s been tested once. This is either a platform for the next rise, which I’d expect to take out the previous highs, or it is a prep for a test of the key 22.50 support area or even potentially the support that coincides with the 200 day average just above 21.
Meanwhile, the Gold/Silver ratio continues to be in a short-term uptrend posture. With both metals rising (gold) or consolidating (silver), it’s not yet a signal for a correction. But if nominal silver chooses to drop for a test of support that would likely shoot the GSR higher, which by extension could correct the miners along with other markets, especially the “inflation” markets.
Bottom Line
Gold has been leading lately, and that is a potential forward negative for some aspects of the macro markets, just as silver’s previous leadership was a positive one. Silver is lurking, in decision mode.
As for the nominal technicals, gold is bullish and silver is in decision mode. Big picture is bullish and thus a pullback/correction would likely be a buying opportunity in the PM complex.
Would love to see that head and shoulder pattern to build/play out in the gsr….would bring us down to around 55