With reference to previous updates on GDX and Gold and Silver, let’s bring things up to the moment.
Gold (futures) is breaking through the 1920 area resistance this morning. It obviously remains bullish and is not yet very overbought.
Silver is still capped below resistance at 24.50. Sure, it is below resistance and still vulnerable to test the first significant support area at 22.50. But the other way to read it is that it is no longer overbought. It could be playing possum while thinking about attacking the 2022 highs.
The HUI/Gold ratio held intact to the intermediate uptrend after pulling back. This remains a positive indicator beneath the surface.
GDX has not yet filled either of the upside gaps, from which I’d anticipated potential for a healthy correction after filling. It could still bounce to do that and then correct to one of the supports shown on the chart. Silver below resistance supports that possibility, but gold breaking through resistance is something more bullish.
Bottom line here is that at this moment I am glad I simply took profits on a few gold stocks rather than hedging. GDX could still rise to fill one or both of the lower gaps, especially since the recent stall has worked off the previous overbought condition.
The other thing is that gap fills or not, there is no assurance of even a healthy correction to follow because if it is a bull market as I think it is, well, that’s what bull markets do. They bull for longer stretches than seem reasonable. If this is not a head fake in gold and depending on how the day goes I may add back a couple items that were sold, with the idea of those still unfilled upper gaps in mind.
