NFTRH+; ES pre-market

A quick view of S&P 500 futures (ES). It has failed at the logical area (downtrending SMA 200) three times since early December. There are positive breadth and leadership signals in the US stock market (but as noted in the Trade Log on 1.18.23, concerning Dumb Money optimism) and ES is right at clear support.

ES needs to hold here to keep a decent rally prospect alive, especially since it has ticked below the SMA 50 as well. There is more short-term support around 3800, but how much leash does one want to give this pig?

S&P 500 futures (ES)