US Cannabis MSOs pumped, then dumped
This is a place where the writer sometimes touts his excellent calls and sometimes highlights his crappy calls. As a trader however, the writer is faulty. That is because the writer does not want to be a trader. He wants to be a ‘top down’ macro guy positioned accordingly. The Cannabis MSO trade was to be a seasonal thing, not a macro thing. The sector’s discrete fundamentals will depend on politics in order to ease tax burdens, increase business exposure and allow access to reasonable funding.
I firmly believe that unless you want to go down the road of financial market know nothings like Kim Kardashian and Tom Brady or worse, people like Max Keiser who pretend to be market analysts (he’s a friggin’ news reporter), you have simply got to own up to the truth at all times. These clowns were/are Bitcoin/crypto shills, capitalizing on vast herds of naive public players. To be an honest analyst in any sector, you have got to admit to the world your faults so that when you trumpet to the world why your methods work you are taken seriously by those other than the marks that these promoters feast upon.
The truth is that I completely screwed up a seasonal play in the Cannabis MSOs, having held both CRLBF and CURLF to excellent paper profits, failed to sell and this morning booked significant losses. To make matters worse (or better for any subscriber who, unlike myself, sold the big pump into Monday) I had thought so well of the MSOs potential as a seasonal post-tax loss bottoming speculation that I made an NFTRH+ update about it. Win some and well, you know.
This is now 2 tax loss seasons in a row that I’ve screwed up the Pot sector.
It turns out politics is at the center of the issue and I don’t have much faith that the near-term is going shake out positive for the sector the way these numb nuts in congress go about their business. The SAFE Banking Act hit the skids and so did the Cannabis sector.
But it’s the markets and losses happen. Eh?
Attention promotional entities out there: the truth shall set you free. You too have screwed up sometimes and you too should admit as much rather than simply taking the stupid laser beams out of your eyes and quietly moving on (Tommy) or in the cases of many promoters, simply stepping aside from the disasters in preparation for the next promo.
In this realm everybody’s got disclaimers and the fault ultimately lay with the marks whose greed and naivete exceed their knowledge and abilities. But it doesn’t make it any less disgusting. I don’t advertise all of my failures because I sure don’t promo all of my good calls, trades, investments, etc. But if you’re going to tout the good stuff, why not also admit it when things go wrong? It’s okay, boyz and girlz. Try it sometime. It can be liberating.
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Gary, I firmly believe in (at least for the past 12 months or so!) that once a profit is in hand, I HAVE to follow it up with a trailing stop. It has saved me from profits turning into losses a number of times. How to set the trailing stop level is a good question — no doubt I have turned some what would have been better profits into smaller ones because the level was dinged, but it was still a profit.
The problem with many of these things are the gap ups and gap downs. One day to the next. Stops are good if you’ve already got a trend and you’ve got enough liquidity that the stock is not heavily manip’d. This spike in the Pot MSOs just came out of nowhere and then went right back to where it came from. I was greedy not to take a stupid profit when it cropped up in a couple days.
Traders should use trailing stops (auto or mental) if there is a trend and they trust an equity’s liquidity not to get taken out on a swoosh and left behind on a reversal. But profit is profit, eh?
That is why I can only be a portfolio cobbler, not a trader. I generally care about the positions I have for portfolio balance reasons. Since the MSOs were not an ‘investment’ but instead, a seasonal play I should not have been greedy when the profit came so easily.