In India it appears as simple as currency depreciation

Indian stocks have been bullish relative to much of the rest of the world, but…

It appears little more than a macro parlor trick as the Indian Rupee dive bombs along with all the others in relation to USD. This is the classic ‘currency down, stocks up (until recently)’ currency depreciation play.

The chart shows a Megaphoning BSE Sensex along with said Rupee tankage below. The flattening of the currency pair on this chart gives the appearance that the currency decline is not as bad as it actually is. But it is bad. Very.

I have no idea whether or not Indian policymakers are actively working toward depreciation or if it’s just Uncle Buck, exerting his will across the currency spectrum. My concern about shorting INDY or INDA would be the currency noise because if USD tops out the pullback is going to be something to behold and that would affect the ETF charts.

Side note: the momentum indicator panels on this chart are for INR/USD, not the Sensex.

inr, rupee, india

I am looking at this because, from NFTRH 724:

India is in what some pattern dorks call a Megaphone, which is something of a reverse Symmetrical Triangle. If a Sym-Tri is bullish the nerds say, the reverse of it is bearish. Well, whatever. I have no [long] interest in this relatively strong market at this time. Support is noted at around 52000 and 4000. Hmm, this might actually work as a short. That would be pending more research on India (market, policy, currency, etc.).

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This Post Has 4 Comments

  1. MikeC

    Gold below 1628 and TYX is parabolic. Are we there yet?

    1. Gary

      I don’t think so. TYX may be parabolic, but we’ve got that upside target still unfilled. Also, please ref. gold’s downside targets now that it has lost that crappy support area in the 1670s. Both are in NFTRH 724.

  2. MikeC

    It will be nice for once having mostly been in cash waiting for what is (hopefully) an excellent buying opportunity across multiple sectors. Pretty much has never happened in my investing lifetime. It’s always been the reverse.

    Now nearing retirement, sure would be an ideal time for that to change!

    1. Gary

      I would also like another epic opportunity on a big macro event. It’s been 14 years since the last one (Q4, 2008). 2020 was good. But if/when capitulation finally happens this one could be a monster. The issue with this bear is that it is thus far methodical and slow moving, unlike the events of ’08 and 2020.

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