NFTRH+; S&P 500 E-mini, pre-FOMC

ES (daily) has failed oh so logically at the downtrending SMA 200 (orange), bounced to test resistance, failed again and now grapples for support. This is a bear market chart with the as yet very minor caveat of a possible Inverted H&S bull pattern if a right side shoulder is being made at support.

The weekly chart shows that it has already pulled a 38% Fib retrace of the major rally out of the 2020 low. But if this thing takes a wrong turn (continuing a 5th wave down) we would be looking at a 50% retrace around 3500 or a 62% retrace around 3200.