Kitco brings a couple of funnies today as more negative hysteria enters the picture
This is one of the sites that publishes my content off and on. Mostly off I think. But it’s a widely followed gold site.
Did you know that
At $1,700 the gold market is on the cusp of ending its bull-market run – TD Securities?
Gold entered a new cyclical bull market when it broke through 1378 (our bull gateway) in 2019. Even in an extreme if gold were to test that breakout (I don’t think it’s overly likely, although the double top theoretically could target that area) it’s still in a new bull phase, but will have dropped much further in price and taken longer in time than I’d originally projected at the August of 2020 top.
One thing gold has going for it is that I’ve seen multiple references to the similarity of today’s pattern to the 2011-2012 topping pattern. In other words, an analog. Recall how often beautiful analogs tend to not work out.
Here is the view from a May 13, 2022 NFTRH+ update (now public).
On the weekly chart that black line is actually the ‘handle’ breakout line to the big picture Cup and it is being tested now. If it holds this support it is still in handle breakout mode. If it ultimately loses it (1797 to 1780) then the Cup’s handle becomes messy and could morph into a ‘lower high’ double top. Just reporting the technicals, folks.
Well, it lost 1780, and the Handle – as any kind of logical pattern – is no more. But this is the precious metals sector and it is violent for these reasons (and more, I am sure)…
- It’s not as liquid as stock, bond and many commodity markets, hence the volatility.
- Gold bugs own gold and gold stocks for misguided reasons like crude oil going up in price (see below) and inflation. Despite historical reality, inflationists include gold and worse, the miners in the inflation trades. The majority of gold bugs are wrongly in it ‘because inflation!’ and they need to be sanitized.
- Bugs buy gold for supply/demand reasons as if it were a commodity. Indian wedding season, China love trade and lots of other bullshit that unsuspecting people lap up. When they puke what they lapped up it only exacerbates the ride down.
- Manipulation! A smaller market is easier to violently manipulate. All markets are manip’d in one form or another but for gold touts left with only excuses after their failed proclamations, the cabal did it! The banksters! When you start seeing words or phrases like “they attacked gold!” you know you’ve got an excuse maker who was on the wrong side.
Get this: A gold promoter, stock promoter, Bitcoin promoter, Commodity tout or other such sleaze does not care if you survive, let alone make bank. Just look at Twitter. The situation has gotten exponentially worse than when scam newsletters and boiler rooms making cold calls were the main culprits. Another one of social media’s blights on society is the ease with which inexperienced people can be fed dynamic information that will make them rich – just like the promoter.
Well, it doesn’t work that way. Only hard work and honesty will do. These lessons are slowly being learned by a whole new cast of noobs in 2022. They will be the better for it some day. But with the reach of today’s online media combined with more marks than ever roaming the interwebpipes the damage must be exponentially greater to the public than the good old fashioned boiler room days.
But I’ve digressed. Back to Kitco, here is another nugget.
Gold price punished by stronger U.S. dollar, weaker crude oil
I can see the gold price punishment at the hands of Uncle Buck. But the same force that is driving gold higher relative to silver (and copper and soon likely other commodities) is driving USD, per my August 30th post. That is going to mean something and what it will mean is that when enough pain has been dealt to casino patrons gold will have its place in the desperate lunge for liquidity. Right now gold is gaining liquidity – slowly but surely – relatively vs. many cyclical assets. But after any coming acute market disaster events play out you watch how gold again is valued.
Meanwhile, humping it all summer up to now (never mind humping it for the 2 years since it topped as most promoters have) exposes the humper as a dogma-driven charlatan.
As for the bit about crude oil? Oh baby, you want to see oil weak when it is time be bullish gold and especially gold stocks. But let’s let the headline at a popular gold site have its say since there’s nothing we can do about it except ignore it and maybe laugh at it.
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This Post Has 2 Comments
Gary, wondering if you can comment about the jobs report in a few sentences. This is where I always get lost. Every 1st Friday of the month I can almost guarantee that the direction the market takes is 180 degrees opposite of what I expected. So more jobs than expected. Which should portend a good size rate hike. Which should not be favorable to stocks. Yet….!
Mike, I don’t micromanage any given data release. It’s another ‘services’ extravaganza and I don’t really care what the market’s in-day reaction is. IMO it is not healthy to get too wrapped up in that noise. I did do a post on the BLS report, as usual, however… /2022/09/02/august-payrolls-315000/
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