As noted a few times previously, the XLV/SPY ratio has indicated bear markets on two of its previous three signals. These came in 2000 and in 2008, while the 2011 low was not material, other than for a short market correction.
The phase from 2011 to 2015 was a positive correlation and I think politics were involved there to a degree. However, the 2015 top in XLV/SPY did foretell a strong recovery in the stock market. So I’d say that there is still a mostly inverse correlation between the ratio and SPX.
As you can see, the bounce in XLV/SPY is not yet notable as a significant bear indicator.
But we can keep an eye on the daily charts to see if that changes. If so, it would be another indicator stacking against the broad stock market. As yet, it’s a potential low, but not yet looking like anything near definitive.
