While USD is short-term bullish I want to also respect the main theme, which has been for inflation to cool during this period, not to be banished. I posted a link to a mainstream article this morning that implies a Goldilocks economy and considering the source, it can also be considered a contrary indicator. In other words, back in March-May all we heard about was inflation in the media, as fed to the public. Now the public is dining on the cooling of inflation fears.
So with the idea that I don’t want to over stay my welcome in the inflationary cool down phase (while still holding growth/tech positions and lots of cash) I added another reflation type stock, buying back MOS as the Agri sector looks like it is waking up again. This goes with Energy, which never went to sleep and the CRB index flirting with taking out its 210 resistance area.
I’ve got some Nickel, PGM and Lithium exposure already. Just slowly trying to stay in balance. But also ready to adjust one way or the other at any time. It’s a market with a lot of crosscurrents.
I am staying balanced for now, but the original theme was for the inflation hysterics to eventually come back if the 30yr yield continuum is to reach the target of the EMA 100 and/or EMA 120 (with a range of 2.6% to 2.9%, currently less than 2.1%). The reason I keep this in play is because markets usually tend to push the limits, so why not eventually a push to the the chart’s limiters? The default continues to be cash in the short-term, however.