NFTRH+; Gold/SPX Ratio

Since NFTRH 653 we have been managing the most subtle of bearish hints in the SPX/Gold ratio. Today the hint is a little more pronounced.

Flipping the SPX/Gold ratio over we see the Gold/SPX ratio inching above the SMA 50 and the wedge top. RSI is short-term overbought (above its EMA 20), so I would not be surprised to see this pull back a bit, regardless of whether this is a real macro signal in the making.

Bottom Line though; so far so good with reference to the original hint. I consider Gold/SPX to be among the most important macro indicators for the gold stock sector. It’s still in process.

A longer-term chart shows how far the reflationary hope trades have come since fear blew out in early 2020. Check out that weekly MACD trigger. Not bad, anyway.

Final Thought

Remember that if the macro is darkening (as would be indicated by Gold out performing stocks) the gold miners often get caught up in the initial stages of bearish market discovery as the machines churn, algos run and the margin man calls. The above is just a hint. Should it go on to be a full on risk ‘off’ signal more people will become aware of the situation and react accordingly. I am going to plan to have patience along with an open mind about forward possibilities.