Note: A reminder that I will be on the road today and tomorrow. So communication will be light at best. I’ll be checking email occasionally.
Copper (daily) dinged the round number resistance at 3 and pulled back. Now it is testing the point we called the bull pivot and has also dropped back below the trend line.
The weekly chart shows a better view of resistance and also the trend line that actually extends from the 2011 top, as a monthly chart would show. If copper were to lose this 2.85 area we would start talking ‘failure’ and about negative implications for the reflating global macro.
Copper/Gold (daily) is dropping below the SMA 200. It had better hold the (dotted) EMA 20 and re-take the SMA 200 or we’d be looking at ‘failure’.
Risk ‘off’ gold (daily) with its more counter-cyclical properties continues to amble along on its way, with no general status change since we began targeting 1940 back in the early spring.
Silver (daily) is in a battle at resistance at 19.70 but still looks constructive.
Silver/Gold (daily) maintains its status above the SMA 200, above the June 2 high, and above former resistance, now tentative support.
Bottom Line
Copper: Is either shaking out the macro reflation relief trades prior to new upside or flashing a warning on them. It has pulled back below breakout points that may have head faked the machines and the hedge funds and casino patrons following them into a full bull view. Lose 2.85 and it would start to get pretty concerning.
Gold: AKA Steady Eddy, with no status change. It’s been biding its time since March. Gold remains a haven and as such has pretty much sat out the party. To me, it has been impressive how firm it has been in the face of the pure greed on display across macro markets.
Silver: Technically constructive still, and in its intact intermediate-term leadership to gold still positive for the macro and the precious metals sector. I think that the best scenario for precious metals stocks would be a wobbling (but not crashing) macro, as evidenced by copper weakness and other cyclical areas combined with strength in silver vs. gold.
Just a brief overview for you as I get ready to hit the road. See you on Sunday with NFTRH 612 (or maybe an update posted here if I have the time and/or the market demands one).
