Lesson #1,764,328

That lesson would be: When you think you see something in the markets and your methods have been working do not be unduly influenced by things you see on the internet, especially short-term (60 min. or less) chart patterns put forth by…

…a group in which you are included.

Last night I saw a chart from Tim Knight, a long time internet pal and renowned bear. It is represented in the bottom panel of my 60 minute chart (XLV) below. This morning I saw a chart somewhere on Twitter from a person who also seemed like a quality source. It is represented by the top panel (SPY).

Both of these were before I checked the market’s futures this morning. I had a level of apprehension because I am managing for subscribers’ consideration (and also publicly noted how NDX may be headed for the upper gap just a couple days ago) and though at very high risk, the view remains bullish and I am free of shorts to prove it. Here are the futures, happily bulling along still.

I’ve mentioned before that if daily charts can so often not do what they’re supposed to do (it’s art, not science) then in-day day trader stuff like 60 min., 30 min., 15 min. charts are much worse at keeping to a chart viewer’s script. Again, I am not claiming these will resume bullish in a meaningful way (the NFTRH view has been VERY discrete and selective in what areas to be bullish on and I’ve followed that in what I trade/hold), but two things…

  1. An H&S is not an H&S until it activates by breaking the neckline and…
  2. When patterns like this show up, they are more often scary looking beyond their efficacy, especially on in-day charts.

All of this said, I am having a very nice 2020 and aim to keep it that way. I am no bull. I am just doing what the market says. Either today, Monday a week from Tuesday or whatever. The market is at increasing risk the higher it goes on this sentiment event. That’s pretty much by definition. But it is going to stop when it stops, not likely when broadcasting scary looking things on 60 minute charts.

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