NFTRH+; A bond setup [w/ edit]

A subscriber asked about longer-term bond funds, which got me thinking more about a chart of TLT that I reviewed yesterday. I thought ‘hmmm… if this were a stock I’d be interested’. That is how far back down bonds have reacted to Fed (monetary) and government (fiscal) policy aimed at inflating the system.

Right now I am loath to highlight anything as a speculation for profit but insofar as one wants to hedge to the deflationary side of the boat bonds have at least pulled back to (daily) trend. This is a big pullback to the major (SMA 200) trend marker. The caveat being that this is a bond fund where you’d buy the debt of a nation now attempting the most balls out inflation in history. Other options would be IEF (7-10 year), IEI (3-7 year) and SHY, which I hold as a cash equivalent (1-3 year). Logically, as the yield curve has steepened – relatively pressuring longer-term bonds – these shorter-term bond funds have not pulled back as dramatically as TLT.

A limit to this idea could be a breakdown below 135 or so.

Again, just an FYI amid the global macro uproar. Click the chart for a clearer view.


[edit] It occurred to me to look at TIPS as well, considering the inflation attempt. This is a weekly chart that has been decimated amid deflation fears. But it is another bond option for a future in doubt regarding deflation and/or inflation. TIP has crashed right to a support area below which could also be considered a stop loss.


A reminder that chart based NFTRH+ updates are technical trade setup ideas, which may not be revisited as the technical parameters are already noted. These updates are meant as a starting point for your further research if interested. I will not personally buy every item highlighted and will sometimes sell (ref. Trade Log) any item that I do buy below target (assuming I’ve not stopped out or sold for some other reason) as I often do. Also please be aware that I am not a fundamental stock analyst. Due diligence is your responsibility.