A routine update as there are no real changes from the weekend report. Just a mid-week note to touch base on the sector and advise that this weekend’s NFTRH 582 will be somewhat shorter than usual due to the rapidly oncoming Christmas holiday. I think we can both use a bit of a break. :-)
Despite my ongoing hang wringing about the CoT (a sentiment indicator above all else) the miners continue to lead the metals in a positive manner. Here’s the daily view of SIL vs. Silver and GDX vs. Gold.
The weekly view as per NFTRH 581 is obviously still pretty. I saw an article by one of the most major gold bulls out there (all through the bear market was he bullish) talking bearish near-term on the miners mainly due to the CoT situation in the metals. Fine, it could happen (his targets are lower than my HUI 180-190). But the charts as yet, don’t see it. The writer could also be a contrary indicator.
The cyclical bull in gold (monthly chart) stopped where it should have stopped and the pullback looks completely normal on a monthly chart. The shaded area is the 1st support area around 1420 (more visible on short-term charts). We are now in month 4 of the correction and nothing looks amiss, technically. That would still be the case with a test of the primary breakout area around 1375.
Silver’s monthly chart shows that a bull market is not indicated until 21.23 is successfully crossed. It too is on a normal and healthy looking pullback from the summer top. The 16.20 area continues to look like the best support, and it’s already dinged 16.57 this month. As we’ve been noting, great work by silver.
Since we used monthly charts above let’s pull out the HUI monthly as well to review that situation. We used this chart to project an eventual upside of around 375 early in the year. I see nothing here technically that makes me want to change that view. The nice thing here is that all of this potential upside would be within a conservative A-B-C bear market rally view. There’d be plenty of time to become a raging bull later if things go that way. For now, I like being able to be conservative and yet project good upside.
Anything can change in the markets, but so far the thing above has not changed. It remains on message.
Indeed, as we’ve been noting my downside targets for the short-term have been elusive (a fancy way of saying “wrong”) thus far. So far this week daily HUI has held the short-term support area we drew in NFTRH 581. It’s rounding upward and as long as it holds the EMA 20 (219) down to 216 or so it is technically bullish. Any loss of the SMA 50 (currently 213) could open up our pullback targets again.