Buy DVAX, Don’t Look at it, Tack on 68%

Okay, as a way to get all these old men (Volcker, von Mises, Trump) of the last few posts out of my head let’s have a head cleaner post, taking a look at the main reason I do this job, to gauge the macro markets in order to invest in or trade… stocks! So here is one.

The title is my story with this stock that has been filled with both potential and execution risk. I bought a small enough amount earlier this year at 4.05/share so that I would not have to look at it as it either went sub-1 and to the pink sheets or well, executed on its business plan and got rewarded by the market.

After enduring a plunge well into the 2s last summer it’s now printing 68% paper profit. But I am not adding to the position. There’s still risk aplenty, but since my small position has grown it is having more affect on the portfolio. Still, it can go to zero and not hurt much. It can go to 20 and help a good bit. Right now, it’s in a battle to try to change the harsh downtrend. The last couple of days have been productive in that effort.

dvax

But what if the company actually makes good on the promise that some players saw in driving it up to 24 in 2017 (if I recall correctly, investors played it as a buyout but lost their nerve when the company ended up going it alone, hence the execution risk)? I think I’ll hold a while longer. It works secondarily as a seasonal play as well, as a small cap and to a degree as a tax loss situation (they puked early, in July and again in September). Anyway, we’ll see.

dvax

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