I have had a feeling that there are too many people on watch for the capitulation in gold. Contrarian wise guys in wait for a great opportunity to go against the herd (which hates or worse, ignores gold). Hell, I am one of those wise guys. All the ducks are in a row from CoT and sentiment standpoints with only the fundamentals standing in the way (and well, that’s sort of an important detail).
Anyway, in my opinion SeekingAlpha is home base for thundering herds of trend following contrary indicators. On March 11, 2009 I posted that “the time has come to begin watching these commodities closely, now that the former commodity bull herd is obsessed with deflation. This is how the markets work my friends.” and got some predictable feedback.
Ref. A Brief Look at Commodities: Oil, Copper
And then in 2014 when I published a warning about 3D Printing, a comments battle ensued between realists and the zealots.
But the valuations of DDD, SSYS and XONE, etc. are based not on the now, but on the future. That future is likely to hold a crowded field of competition as patents expire, start ups get up to speed and the very real opportunity in ‘additive manufacturing’ is exploited far and wide.
Ref. 3-D Printing: No Barrier to Future Losses for Investors
Anyway, back to the point of this post about gold. As I was looking through the stats for Biiwii.com I followed an incoming link from SeekingAlpha originating from the comments section of an article by Keith Weiner and saw this robo-feed suggestion for articles from SA pop up…
From the ‘Gold and Silver: Similar to 2008‘ article…
The bottom line is that the prices of gold and silver are being systematically taken down as a mechanism to help cover up the fact that a large-scale financial crisis is going to hit the global financial system. I don’t know the timing, but I would suggest that the EM currency meltdown that began in South America and has spread to the eastern hemisphere represents a series of earthquakes that are generating a “tsunami.”
While I’m loath to forecast a price bottom for gold and the timing of the forthcoming systemic crisis, I would suggest that anyone who is shaken out of their gold, silver and mining stocks right now will regret selling when looking back a year from now.
I dunno, it just feels like there may be more pain to come in the short-term, because everybody seems to be on the case. And again, that includes me; although I am using extreme patience with little sense of urgency (yesterday’s pop was clearly a bull trap from the beginning) at 7:44 US Eastern Time on August 17. Check back in a few hours and the case may be different.*
* That’s a joke. I’ll actually be on the road a good chunk of the day.
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