“Trade Talk Hopes”

The theme has been that the trade war food fight (TWFF) in the macro cafeteria had periodically interrupted the S&P 500’s drive to test its top, which it finally did last week. These interruptions were like little micro bursts of sentiment input that would spook the market for a whole day or two, resetting sentiment for the next grind upward toward the test.

So now, going the other way we have (article & graphics from investing.com)…

USD Drops; Stocks Rebound on Trade Talk Hopes

Ha ha ha… it’s the same thing in reverse. The market is getting pleasured by this happy macro headline as well as good reports from biggies CSCO and the heretofore do-nothingest thing in my portfolio, WMT.

So the dollar is down and stocks, commodities, precious metals and yields are up. It’s a morning of inflation signaling but again remember, it could be a little sentiment knee-jerk going the other way. What if maybe these positive sentiment outbursts are little interruptions to a post top-test decline? Okay relax, I am not predicting. I am following the market, bullish or bearish. But what if? It would be fitting.

So the market is set to take back all of Dow’s loss yesterday and then some (considering Cisco & Walmart are in there) and SPX and NDX are only taking back partials.

Commodities are knee-jerking onto the gravy train too. That includes gold bugs, who are in the midst of a very fine capitulation situation.

While yields pop a bit too.


I am not buying it. While I think that this is a one or two day wonder, I most certainly could be wrong. But not because a headline notes TWFF relief.

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