Last week we noted a potential Inverted H&S in the 7-10 year Treasury bond iShares. Today it is a step closer as it’s pounding the neckline.
Why do I care about bonds? Well, mostly because of their macro signaling. Now think back if you will to when you were being treated to an orgy of experts mentally pleasuring the market’s more hysterical impulses about the new bond bear.
Gross, Dalio and Tudor Jones were trotted out as the bond prepared to make its bottoming pattern. Their views may well be right on the big picture, but the point is that the media amplified this at precisely the wrong time as we noted was the case at that time.
Our theme has been that if the bond bottoms (for a phase at least), and if risk goes ‘off’ then macro changes will have arrived. Lots of other balls in the air as well so insert here that this is by no means comprehensive analysis; it’s a free public blog post. But the point is that not very many people were expecting longer-term Treasury bonds to be making a bottom at the bottom.
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