Not that you need me to tell you this, but Semi has been weak for some time now. First it was the Fab Equipment stocks like AMAT & LRCX. Now the SOX is looking pretty bad.
But possibly joining the Semis is big Tech in general, which had been supporting the market throughout 2018’s rough patches. We have noted that both of these indexes were on a top test. SOX had failed and NDX had gone to a new high, which we did not credit as necessarily bullish. Now this market leader is losing that high.
It would be easy to call the global trade situation yet another emotional bull refresher, but the longer it goes on, the more embedded it becomes, the more fundamentally in the mix it is.
We took a look at INTC going bearish in NFTRH 505. Here is its big Tech compadre and fellow global large cap, CSCO looking pretty bad. That lower low, if it holds up, is not a good thing.
Just a quick snapshot in what has been a “rising risk” market. Semi and Tech leadership has been important and if NDX leadership joins Semi in the dumper, the market will be losing a big sponsor. After all, where are they going to run if they can’t run to the old standbys like the FANGs and other big Tech names?
As of now it’s a difficult market open and it could reverse. But I call them as I see them and the daily charts above, plus INTC, are not looking good at the moment. We’ll see how the day closes. Here let’s also remember that the Dow has been relatively weak. It is putting on a hard test of the SMA 200 right now. The public thinks “the Dow” when it thinks “the stock market”.