alice

NFTRH Update; The Next Bounce (med. priority)

Using the Industrials SPDR per this post as an example, we have another segment that has ticked to a lower low (finally). Now, the market being the market it will probably want to punish people for shorting the lower low today, but as noted in that earlier post, the next bounce would be a shorting opportunity (with a stop loss on that idea being a higher high to the April high).

After that post XLI dropped even further but then dutifully put in a daily Hammer candle, which is often a reversal/bounce candle. But the lower low is in and now a bounce to test the SMA 200 breakdown or very possibly the declining SMA 50 would be logical. I am not so much recommending a short of XLI as I am trying to illustrate what I am looking for in order to start leaning bearish on any index or stock. Watch for lower highs after establishing a ‘lower highs, lower lows’ downtrend. But first, patience as they may try to bull the market.

And as I type there they go bulling AAPL after hours +4% after all those dreary iPhone 10 expectations had been carefully massaged into the market by the media.

xli