An interesting week, folks. Gold’s Commitments of Traders took on more bullish speculators and corresponding commercial net shorts. The little guy shorted, which should be a tiny little positive for gold.
Silver’s CoT saw some speculative enthusiasm (see breakout chart below) as large speculators covered shorts and commercials amped them up on the other side. The little guy, unlike in gold, was feeling frisky as of Tuesday.
Gold closes the week having made a head fake to 1300 (which has been our bounce target even if this is only a bounce, which I am not prepared to proclaim, despite said head fake) and reversal back down from its tentative breakout.
Silver’s chart shows why so many speculators and little guys are excited; there was a trend line breakout (and re-test) and silver is in an attractive daily chart pattern.
So the CoT data moved toward a bearish alignment but the CoT’s trend may not be over, so you have to filter that stuff. Technically, silver still looks constructive in that pattern (the mining indexes are similar) and gold probably always was going to pull back after its 1st stab into fresh highs, so I am not reading too much into it at this point. Had the stock market put on a big bounce I’d have probably read more into it. So into next week we plod, limping to the finish line of the summer period, which I for one, cannot wait to get over with.
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