Since I am hanging out there with a view on USD that goes against all current trends (up in the anti-USD trade and down in Uncle Buck), may as well micro-manage it until resolved.
Daily USD is in its 2nd day of flagging after breaking the harsh downtrend channel, post-jobs.
Monthly USD again reminds of how important this support area is.
A longer monthly view shows that it has tested the ’04 and ’05 highs and remains on a big picture breakout from a long-term base. If this ‘inflation trade’, which is mostly centered in stocks but with sporadic commodity participation, is to continue near-term, Uncle Buck would probably test the next support at 88. If current support instead holds as expected, the party would likely end. Either way, it seems USD entered a bull market in 2014 and as of this moment, remains in said bull market.
Our minds may be saying that the dollar is going down because it denominates a country led by a protectionist carnival barker, but the charts are always the charts and the above is my interpretation of them. By taking certain pro-USD actions I have eroded personal performance lately. But I’ve got time (and risk management) to let this play out. If USD drops below 92, that 4 points to 88 could signal an extended party, which I’d not stand against.
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