A general review of precious metals, US, European and ‘All-World’ Stocks and commodities.
Although gold ticked a tiny ‘higher high’ we leaned toward it being a double top with short-term significance. In dropping to the SMA 200 (1241) it is a candidate for a bounce. But I don’t like that RSI has not become oversold to the degree of the last 2 declines. Any bouncing from here will see resistance at 1261 (SMA 50) come into play. A tradeable bounce or rally should come from a more oversold condition.
Silver is just a mess as it has routinely failed both the SMA 200 and SMA 50, each of which are turned down. It did not get to the best bounce target of 18.50 and did not become overbought on the last rally so maybe it need not become oversold prior to a bounce. But again, a tradeable bounce should come from a more oversold condition. I would consider shorting silver again if it gets to either of the 2 noted moving averages (currently 17.51 & 17.15, and dropping).
HUI continues to be no good on the daily view. Yesterday it was positive and any bounce from here will see minor resistance at 190 and then significantly more resistance at 195 (SMA 50) and 200 (SMA 200). That 200 day average is the daily ball and chain and is the 1st key resistance level that needs to be taken out to even consider longer-term bullish prospects for the index. Don’t let the pom pom brigade put too much noise and confusion into it. HUI is bearish below the SMA 200.
S&P 500 is fine as the US market rotates. The flavor of the week is the Biotech sector, which finally broke the consolidation we’d been noting by weekly charts (a little late, it occurs to me that I should add a daily multi-panel chart of iShares fund IBB and its top components; that will appear in NFTRH 453).
As for SPX, the trend is robotic up. MACD and RSI are not attractive and there is the potential for a rollover. But until said rollover happens (in line with a weak late June seasonal?) then it is what it is; bull trending.
NDX and SOX have bounced and thus, not (yet) lost their SMA 50s, which we noted could be a correction guide for the rest of the US market. So far this week, that is not happening and so the rotation theme labors on with no real breakdowns.
Euro STOXX 50 remains in short-term consolidation. It would need to reclaim and hold the SMA 50 in order to get back on a bull track. The April gap could fill and a higher low to the April low would be needed to keep the general uptrend intact.
Meanwhile, ‘the World’ is bullish, with a rolling MACD and fading RSI. That weakness is a negative divergence, but the trend as of now is firmly up.
EMs are consolidating with a rolling MACD and fading RSI. I remain short not because of this chart, but because of a bullish view on the US dollar.
I don’t know who would be bullish on commodities these days but it sure as hell has not been us. We’ve been noting the intermediate downtrend since the 1st bounce in March. I covered my short on DBC because I have a weakness in trading and that weakness is in riding momentum; and the momo here is screaming to the downside. The bear pattern measures to around 165, so the oversold CRB index can bounce at any time. But man, this is bearish.
