‘Eff the Squid’ and Other Thoughts on the Macro

The Semis pulled back right on cue, and I am short.  The Pigs are getting hammered right on cue (per premium-only NFTRH+ updates on GS, KBE, XLF, etc.) and I am short.  The boring stuff (I am long) is holding its own, bonds (I am long, and increased positions after they got hammered last week) are continuing with our contrarian bounce theme against the masses, and the defensive/counter-cyclical/risk ‘off’ contingent is doing okay in relation to the S&P 500 (SPY).

We noted in NFTRH 439 that GDX-SPY could (not is) be making a double bottom.  TLT-SPY has not yet made a technical signal, but I’m in TLT for macro reasons.  And we noted that UTES-SPY and Staples-SPY each looked desirable.  Today improves that standing very nicely.

gdx.spy

Here’s the thing; I am not one of those market commentators who considers his words and analysis as disposable.  That is because I don’t consider an intelligent readership to be disposable.  So when I put some things out there like I’m ‘long TLT’ or ‘short Goldman’ and when I go against 98% of the herds (in this case hysterical about Trumponomic fiscal policies and rising interest rates to come) I feel as though I’m on a bit of a hot seat, because there isn’t the comfort of being no more wrong than the next herd member.

When you take a contrary stand, you stick out.  So today I take a little sigh of… not relief, because I kept double checking my theses and finding them sound… but a sigh of… oh I don’t know.  Call it a sigh of ‘F/U you giant Vampire Squid’.  As much as I enjoyed being long that stock as it went up, I’ll doubly enjoy it being short if it continues downward.

Aside from a focus on individual situations, today is a good example of why I’ve been harping on taking profits, limiting losses, rebalancing portfolios as the macro changes and keeping high cash levels.

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